I decided I needed a set of rules to govern my punting decisions. Too often I have given into excitement, stupidity, a wrong "gut feeling" or any number of factors that can be a detriment to success. Ultimately I have come up with 20 rules, which will no doubt continue to be modified over time, but here are the first 4:
The Rules
1) Bet only on thoroughbreds.
2) Bet only to place, not to win, EW or on multiples.
3) Never bet without studying the form guide and making an informed choice.
4) Never bet under the influence of alcohol.
To cover the reasoning behind these rules in more detail, I offer the following:
1) As posted previously, to be a successful punter, one needs knowledge. That involves a lot of research, establishing and maintaining a database, and having a passion for the sport involved. For me, the best choice was horses, mainly because that's what I feel I know the most about. I did consider including sports betting, but I quickly realised I simply did not have the time to put into researching multiple sports and keeping my data up to date.
2) This is simple really. Yes, trifectas, quinellas, straight win dividends or EW bets will produce higher returns than place betting - when they win. But for me, they are notoriously unreliable. I find trifectas and multiples in general take a lot longer to research, and whilst I often can get a return, it rarely covers the bet, let alone making a profit!
For win and EW, well for a straight win, I don't think that is viable, although interestingly, when I compare my results from a month's betting, as I seem to be able to pick winners almost as regularly as place getters, the returns are almost equal. Still, it makes more statistical sense that to bet only on a place, one has 3 chances of a return, compared to one only for a win. For EW, it also works out about even, but again, when the horse places but does not win, usually you will lose overall on the bet. I prefer to win overall, albeit with a smaller margin, but more regularly.
3) Obvious really. Yes you can use "expert" tips and late mail, but I have found they are really only 50% effective at best. Some are better than others, but essentially you are still putting you money in someone else's hands if you don't make your own decisions. Plus, when you want to introduce staking into your betting, and thus increase your returns, it is very hard to do that effectively without the confidence required from making your own informed decisions.
4) Again, obvious. My pub betting afternoons usually follow a similar path - start well, studying form and making a few good bets. As the day wears on, I am getting boozed up, plus the frequency of races increases - after a few pints I suddenly feel the need to bet on every race! So the careful studying of form goes out the window, often followed by all the profits and then most of the kitty. And then, I hate to say more often than it should, perhaps a desperate bet of a large amount on a short-priced favourite follows. Sometimes it works, and I go home even, others it does not and I go home hundreds down and depressed.
Avoid that situation. Do enjoy a beer while watching the races, but make your selections and bets beforehand. These days I watch the races mainly at home with my wife, and am enjoying it a lot more. I do like the pub for the social part of it sometimes still, but limit my bank to small "toy" bets and don't take it too seriously.
Wow, that ended up being a big post! But I do have a lot to say :)
Thursday, 25 April 2013
Fallen Off The Radar...
Yep I did somewhat, apologies for that. But believe me, April has been a hell of a month! I need to go backwards a bit, to fill you all in on my progress. Progress in terms of learnings, has been good. Not so good in terms of returns though, but I believe I understand why.
Ok, just a quick post, I am now going to start going through my weekly routine and see what we can surmise from my performance....
Ok, just a quick post, I am now going to start going through my weekly routine and see what we can surmise from my performance....
Wednesday, 3 April 2013
Where To Start?
Right, so where to begin?
There are a lot of things I need to consider:
1) What am I going to bet on?
2) What kind of income do I need?
3) What level of return can I expect and thus how much do I need to bet each month?
4) What rules will I apply to keep myself disciplined and focussed?
5) How will I manage all of this so I don't disappear up my own arse?
Let's consider the first question:
If gambling was easy (to win that is, we all know it's DAMN easy to gamble and lose), every bugger would be doing it. The way I see it there are two kinds of gambling;
a) Where there is little or no science, such as in lottery numbers, poker machines and most casino games.
b) Where one can apply logic and science to improve one's chances, such as in racing or sports betting.
So we'll discount a) altogether, as the odds on routinely making money here are simply dead against the punter. Yes the potential return is astronomically higher, but with million-to-one shots, which for most of us, simply never come up.
With b) there are a number of options;
i) Horse Racing
ii) Greyhounds
iii) Harness Racing
iv) Team Sports
v) Individual Sports
I decided to eliminate greyhounds on the spot, as they are notoriously unreliable - how many times have you picked a sure winner only to see it get nudged, lose its mind mid-race, or simply forget to turn the corner properly? I also decided to eliminate harness racing, as for me too many things can go wrong, the form is hard to read, and having the favourite come in when it is any more than $1.20 seems like a lottery to me half the time anyway! I have done my arse backing unbackable favourites on harness racing more times than I care to remember.
That leaves gallops and sports betting. My good mate and mentor Boris (www.sportismadeforbetting.com) advises that the key to betting is discipline and knowledge. We'll tackle discipline later, but for now let's focus on knowledge. I used to tip footy regularly and watch a lot of games. I simply don't follow it that closely anymore. And all other sports, while I do show an interest in many, again I don't follow them closely enough to say I am knowledgeable.
Horse racing on the other hand, I have been following a lot lately, and studying a lot. Plus, there are almost infinite chances to read form and watch racing, so for me, the chance of increasing and maintaining my knowledge on any one sport makes horse racing the obvious choice.
That answers Q1!
This may appear to be a crazy long-winded way around getting to a decision, but we're talking potential life-changing decisions at the end of the day, so I believe it's worth spelling it all out and looking at as many angles as practical. Please bear with me on this!
There are a lot of things I need to consider:
1) What am I going to bet on?
2) What kind of income do I need?
3) What level of return can I expect and thus how much do I need to bet each month?
4) What rules will I apply to keep myself disciplined and focussed?
5) How will I manage all of this so I don't disappear up my own arse?
Let's consider the first question:
If gambling was easy (to win that is, we all know it's DAMN easy to gamble and lose), every bugger would be doing it. The way I see it there are two kinds of gambling;
a) Where there is little or no science, such as in lottery numbers, poker machines and most casino games.
b) Where one can apply logic and science to improve one's chances, such as in racing or sports betting.
So we'll discount a) altogether, as the odds on routinely making money here are simply dead against the punter. Yes the potential return is astronomically higher, but with million-to-one shots, which for most of us, simply never come up.
With b) there are a number of options;
i) Horse Racing
ii) Greyhounds
iii) Harness Racing
iv) Team Sports
v) Individual Sports
I decided to eliminate greyhounds on the spot, as they are notoriously unreliable - how many times have you picked a sure winner only to see it get nudged, lose its mind mid-race, or simply forget to turn the corner properly? I also decided to eliminate harness racing, as for me too many things can go wrong, the form is hard to read, and having the favourite come in when it is any more than $1.20 seems like a lottery to me half the time anyway! I have done my arse backing unbackable favourites on harness racing more times than I care to remember.
That leaves gallops and sports betting. My good mate and mentor Boris (www.sportismadeforbetting.com) advises that the key to betting is discipline and knowledge. We'll tackle discipline later, but for now let's focus on knowledge. I used to tip footy regularly and watch a lot of games. I simply don't follow it that closely anymore. And all other sports, while I do show an interest in many, again I don't follow them closely enough to say I am knowledgeable.
Horse racing on the other hand, I have been following a lot lately, and studying a lot. Plus, there are almost infinite chances to read form and watch racing, so for me, the chance of increasing and maintaining my knowledge on any one sport makes horse racing the obvious choice.
That answers Q1!
This may appear to be a crazy long-winded way around getting to a decision, but we're talking potential life-changing decisions at the end of the day, so I believe it's worth spelling it all out and looking at as many angles as practical. Please bear with me on this!
Tuesday, 2 April 2013
Welcome To My Journey
Greetings fellow punting enthusiasts!
I have been a part-time and very amateur punter for years. For a long time I always considered it to be just a bit of fun - either at the pub or for a day out at the track.
However, on numerous occasions the thought did occur to me that when I wasn't swayed (and I was often swayed) by extraneous factors and a whole lot of BS, including the usual suspects of over-confidence, drunkenness, desperation and expert opinions, I actually did quite well.
Fast forward to 2013. I am now 40. I have been a professional in my industry for 20 years, and have done ok for myself and my family. But I am sick of my job, and sick of my industry. More than that, I am sick to death of working for somebody else. I have plans in place to grow my assets so I can retire one day, lead a decent life, and hopefully give something to my kids. But my assets wax and wane due to factors way beyond my control, and when they do grow, it is quite slowly...
I was lying in bed one night last month, and it came to me that if I came up with a decent system, using my nous, some basic rules and a whole lot of homework, I might be able to provide enough of a return on my punting to replace my current income.
I decided to put together my system, and start doing some trials. This blog is a record of that journey. I am keeping track of it to help keep myself honest, to record the many thoughts and ideas that flow through my mind, and, if it works, to hopefully give some inspiration to others.
Wish me luck!
I have been a part-time and very amateur punter for years. For a long time I always considered it to be just a bit of fun - either at the pub or for a day out at the track.
However, on numerous occasions the thought did occur to me that when I wasn't swayed (and I was often swayed) by extraneous factors and a whole lot of BS, including the usual suspects of over-confidence, drunkenness, desperation and expert opinions, I actually did quite well.
Fast forward to 2013. I am now 40. I have been a professional in my industry for 20 years, and have done ok for myself and my family. But I am sick of my job, and sick of my industry. More than that, I am sick to death of working for somebody else. I have plans in place to grow my assets so I can retire one day, lead a decent life, and hopefully give something to my kids. But my assets wax and wane due to factors way beyond my control, and when they do grow, it is quite slowly...
I was lying in bed one night last month, and it came to me that if I came up with a decent system, using my nous, some basic rules and a whole lot of homework, I might be able to provide enough of a return on my punting to replace my current income.
I decided to put together my system, and start doing some trials. This blog is a record of that journey. I am keeping track of it to help keep myself honest, to record the many thoughts and ideas that flow through my mind, and, if it works, to hopefully give some inspiration to others.
Wish me luck!
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