I decided I needed a set of rules to govern my punting decisions. Too often I have given into excitement, stupidity, a wrong "gut feeling" or any number of factors that can be a detriment to success. Ultimately I have come up with 20 rules, which will no doubt continue to be modified over time, but here are the first 4:
The Rules
1) Bet only on thoroughbreds.
2) Bet only to place, not to win, EW or on multiples.
3) Never bet without studying the form guide and making an informed choice.
4) Never bet under the influence of alcohol.
To cover the reasoning behind these rules in more detail, I offer the following:
1) As posted previously, to be a successful punter, one needs knowledge. That involves a lot of research, establishing and maintaining a database, and having a passion for the sport involved. For me, the best choice was horses, mainly because that's what I feel I know the most about. I did consider including sports betting, but I quickly realised I simply did not have the time to put into researching multiple sports and keeping my data up to date.
2) This is simple really. Yes, trifectas, quinellas, straight win dividends or EW bets will produce higher returns than place betting - when they win. But for me, they are notoriously unreliable. I find trifectas and multiples in general take a lot longer to research, and whilst I often can get a return, it rarely covers the bet, let alone making a profit!
For win and EW, well for a straight win, I don't think that is viable, although interestingly, when I compare my results from a month's betting, as I seem to be able to pick winners almost as regularly as place getters, the returns are almost equal. Still, it makes more statistical sense that to bet only on a place, one has 3 chances of a return, compared to one only for a win. For EW, it also works out about even, but again, when the horse places but does not win, usually you will lose overall on the bet. I prefer to win overall, albeit with a smaller margin, but more regularly.
3) Obvious really. Yes you can use "expert" tips and late mail, but I have found they are really only 50% effective at best. Some are better than others, but essentially you are still putting you money in someone else's hands if you don't make your own decisions. Plus, when you want to introduce staking into your betting, and thus increase your returns, it is very hard to do that effectively without the confidence required from making your own informed decisions.
4) Again, obvious. My pub betting afternoons usually follow a similar path - start well, studying form and making a few good bets. As the day wears on, I am getting boozed up, plus the frequency of races increases - after a few pints I suddenly feel the need to bet on every race! So the careful studying of form goes out the window, often followed by all the profits and then most of the kitty. And then, I hate to say more often than it should, perhaps a desperate bet of a large amount on a short-priced favourite follows. Sometimes it works, and I go home even, others it does not and I go home hundreds down and depressed.
Avoid that situation. Do enjoy a beer while watching the races, but make your selections and bets beforehand. These days I watch the races mainly at home with my wife, and am enjoying it a lot more. I do like the pub for the social part of it sometimes still, but limit my bank to small "toy" bets and don't take it too seriously.
Wow, that ended up being a big post! But I do have a lot to say :)
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