Learnings - Week 1 & 2

Here is a summary of the notations I made from each race, be it a win or loss from my first two weeks' trials:

	What have I learned?
1	Form means everything - particularly at the distance being raced
2	FU and 2U record is worth taking note of - particularly a good 2U record
3	Consider fitness of horse - length of campaign and compare against previous
4	It's hard to beat a superstar
5	Don't ever pick multi's - they come through once in a while but lose overall
6	VG trial + VG trainer is compelling - but only in the city
7	Consider how many times I observed better form, picked against it and lost
8	CHS is a powerful attribute
9	Jockey doesn't make a lot of difference unless it is a class horse
10	Be careful listening to other people - don't break your own rules!

To clarify:

FU and 2U means first-up and second-up

CHS means coming home strong, which is what I call a horse who tends to come from mid-back field at the 600 and finish strongly. Some horses lead and go all the way, but I find they are often at risk of being run down by a horse with a powerful CHS record.

A lot of this may seem pretty damn obvious. But honestly, as I wrote in my notations, there were a good number of races where I wrote down the form of the field, noted that a horse had the best form, and picked against it only to lose. That was the lesson of these two weeks for me, more than any other. If you are an up-and-coming punter, please be aware of that. There are always reasons why we think a horse will win or lose, but nothing argues with form, there is little opinion in that. Yes class and circumstances come into play, but overall, form is king.

Week 2 Trials

Ok, so one week in and we have learned a fair bit already. Perhaps enough to add and/or modify some of the core rules, but we'll leave that for now. Here is the summary of Week 2's activity. As you will note, as this is still a trial, not all punts have money attached to them; for some I am simply testing my ability to select a placegetter.

Race	Dist	Horse	Jockey	Invest	P	Div	Rev	Return	%	S/R
Don 1	1000	Regal Movement	McKechnie	$10.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Don 2	1200	Hoedown	B Rawiller	$10.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Don 3	1350	Angel Falls	Stackhouse	$10.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Don 4	1350	Fulcrum	Yendall	$0.00	2	$1.10	$0.00	$0.00
Don 5	2000	Fits & Starts	McLean	$0.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Don 6	1200	Angel of Rock	B Rawiller	$0.00	9	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Don 8	1600	It's Vital	B Rawiller	$0.00	2	$2.50	$0.00	$0.00
Total				$30.00			$0.00	-$30.00	-100.0%	29%
Race	Dist	Horse	Jockey	Invest	P	Div	Rev	Return	%	S/R
Can 1	1550	Express Power	Reith	$10.00	1	$1.60	$16.00	$6.00
Can 2	1250	Alcaraz	Quinn	$10.00	6	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Can 3	1100	Impulse	Shinn	$10.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Can 4	1200	Kakakakatchme	Brown	$10.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Can 5	1900	Servimoss	Robl	$10.00	10	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Can 6	1900	Daruna	Bowman	$10.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Can 7	1200	Annabels	Collett	$10.00	1	$1.95	$19.50	$9.50
Doom 7	1350	Egyptian Tomb	Harrison	$50.00	12	$0.00	$0.00	-$50.00
Doom 8	1350	Sole Illusion	Byrne	$0.00	2	$2.70	$0.00	$0.00
Asc 1	1200	Zee Dribbler	Noske	$0.00	6	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Asc 2	1200	Vital Importance	B Parnham	$0.00	3	$1.80	$0.00	$0.00
Asc 3	1000	Regent Reign	Turner	$0.00	3	$2.20	$0.00	$0.00
Asc 4	1400	Balisier	Whiting	$10.00	9	$0.00	$0.00	-$10.00
Asc 6	1100	Lord Balthazar	C Parnham	$0.00	2	$2.20	$0.00	$0.00
Total				$130.00			$35.50	-$94.50	-72.7%	43%
Race	Dist	Horse	Jockey	Invest	P	Div	Rev	Return	%	S/R
Hawk 7	1800	Champagnelifestyle	N Berry	$20.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	-$20.00
Hawk 8	1500	Payteevee	Avdulla	$20.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	-$20.00
Bend 7	2200	Somebody's Image	B Rawiller	$20.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$20.00
Bend 8	1300	Geology	Holland	$10.00	2	$1.70	$17.00	$7.00
Rock 4	1100	Alotta Mojo	Gates	$20.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	-$20.00
Rock 5	970	Testya Time	Hayes	$20.00	1	$2.25	$45.00	$25.00
Rock 6	1300	The Shooter	Dillon	$50.00	1	$2.70	$135.00	$85.00
Gera 2	1220	Sky Dreamer	P Carbery	$20.00	1	$2.55	$51.00	$31.00
Var	N/A	Nonsense Trots	N/A	$30.00	0	$0.00	$0.00	-$30.00
Var	N/A	Multi's	N/A	$30.00	0	$0.00	$0.00	-$30.00
Gera 3	1628	Biscabeel	P Carbery	$150.00	1	$1.60	$240.00	$90.00
Gera 4	1628	Barossa Red	Bazeley	$50.00	10	$0.00	$0.00	-$50.00
Total				$440.00			$488.00	$48.00	10.9%	42%
Race	Dist	Horse	Jockey	Invest	P	Div	Rev	Return	%	S/R
Rose 1	1200	Heart Testa	Collett	$0.00	3	$1.80	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 2	2400	Permit	Bowman	$0.00	2	$1.40	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 3	1200	Itameri	McEvoy	$0.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 4	1200	Sidestep	McEvoy	$0.00	1	$1.20	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 5	1900	Sables	Reith	$0.00	8	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 6	2000	Hvasstan	Newitt	$0.00	6	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 7	1100	Snitzerland	Brown	$0.00	2	$1.70	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 8	1500	Lightinthenite	McDonald	$0.00	4	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Rose 9	1200	Arinosa	Avdulla	$0.00	1	$3.10	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 1	1700	Prizum	Sadler	$0.00	6	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 2	1200	Weinholt	Stackhouse	$0.00	1	$1.50	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 3	1400	Plucky Belle	Meech	$0.00	1	$2.60	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 4	1400	Such Hope	Winks	$0.00	1	$5.00	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 5	1000	African Pulse	Sadler	$0.00	1	$1.30	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 6	1400	Under The Eiffel	Callow	$50.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	-$50.00
Caul 7	2000	Whisper Downs	Schofield	$0.00	3	$2.90	$0.00	$0.00
Caul 8	2000	He'snotthemessiah	B Rawiller	$0.00	5	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00
Total				$50.00			$0.00	-$50.00	-100.0%	59%
Race	Dist	Horse	Jockey	Invest	P	Div	Rev	Return	%	S/R
Dub 4	1900	Secret Number	De Sousa	$500.00	3	$0.00	$0.00	-$500.00
Mud 4	1400	Are You Sure	Ryan	$50.00	1	$2.10	$105.00	$55.00
Morn 8	2400	Pauling	Rodd	$50.00	2	$1.05	$52.50	$2.50
Total				$600.00			$157.50	-$442.50	-73.7%	100%
				Invest	1-3		Revenue	Return	%	S/R
				$1,250	26		$681	-$569.00	-45.5%	49%

This was a good learning week, but it also sucked. I learned two lessons the hard way this week (and will continue to learn them for weeks/months to come I can assure you). One, you need to have a staking plan. I am no expert, so I suggest you look elsewhere for guidance, but it does not make sense to bet the same on every race, and/or bet crazy amounts for invalid reasons. My first $50 punt did not come through. I had had a number of bets by this time, had a decent SR, and was feeling cocky. So I thought I'd up the ante because I saw "form" when the tote clearly did not. Guess what? It bit me. Then on Friday a good mate tipped Secret Number my way, who was racing in Dubai. a) I know nothing about this horse or Dubai, and b) I had no access to a suitable FG. So what did I do? I bet $500 on the nose!!!!! How fucking stupid is that? Particularly seeing as when the horse inevitably lost, it still ran a place, so I coughed up a decent chance to make a buck on that bet as well.

Ultimately, it was a poor week, but terribly compounded by that one stupid bet. I'd like to say that was an aberration, but alas it was a scene to be repeated in future. Happy punting, and please stay tuned...